Well first off, I'd like to apologize for the lack of posting over the past few weeks, but it will pick up shortly. I was a bit out of the loop and was just informed that the Yankees are close to dealing for Cliff Lee. The alleged package that they are giving up is Jesus Montero, David Adams, and a third prospect. Mike Axisa at RAB speculates that the Yankees could also be getting a Brandon League back in the deal, but that's just speculation.

Even if League was included, I would still not be a fan of the deal. He is, after all, just a reliever. I voiced my opinion on a potential Lee deal exactly one month ago.

They've demonstrated that they aren't going to pay up the nose in prospects and in dollars, when they can just do one. If the Yankees want Lee, they will pursue him in the offseason. I don't see any reason to give up prospects for him now.

Later in the post, I said:

Sure, they'd want Austin Romine or Jesus Montero too, but that isn't going to happen.

It really looks like I was totally wrong(not surprising), but I'll still be very unhappy about this deal if it happens. The reasons are simple, and are simply expressed by Beyond the Box Score's Trade Value Calculator.

If I am extremely optimistic with Lee and say he will continue his pace and net 4 WAR in the second half of the season and count the potential draft picks for an extra $5 million, his net value would be $18.7 million.

According to Victor Wang's research, a top ten hitting prospect averages $36.7 million in surplus value. Add in two more prospects, and you can see that the Mariners will be getting the better end of the deal. Plus, the Yankees already have five suitable starters, and I honestly am not sure how much this increases their World Series odds. I assume the number isn't as big as you would think by adding another ace.

I won't mind seeing Lee pitch for the Yankees, but I think this is an unnecessary bet, when the Yankees would have been able to sign Lee in the offseason. This doesn't feel like Cashman's M.O., but I guess he really wants to add Lee.

If the Yankees don't win the World Series this season, this trade was absolutely worthless. Figure that the Yanks can't have much more than 40-50% odds of winning the Series, and I think it is a very silly trade. Bad move, Cash.

Here's an extremely belated take on the rest of the top 10 as well as some other names of note.

Gabe Encinas, RHP HS (CA)

Encinas is a projectable guy with a good amount of upside, already sitting in the low 90s with his fastball and offers quality secondary pitches. As he grows he should be able to maintain the velocity deeper into games (something he’s struggled with at times) and further develop his changeup and curveball into major league offerings. He’s shown signs that he knows what he’s doing out there and is certainly not just a “thrower”. It’ll take a bit of money to lure him away from Loyola Marymount and Los Angeles but if he signs Encinas offers a nice mix of projectability and upside.

Taylor Anderson- OF- HS (LA)

Anderson is another raw, toolsy outfield talent the Yankees took a shot on. He has a shot to play all 3 outfield spots due to his above average speed and his hitting ability. He’ll have to grow into his 6’1” 160 lbs frame though to add some power to profile in a corner. He’ll take awhile to reach his potential but he does have youth on his side.

Kyle Roller- 1B- East Carolina

Roller was impressive last summer on the Cape and had many percolating about his future but a lackluster spring has dampened expectations some. He’s not an extremely athletic player and defensively he may not amount to much, but he does have plus power and good plate discipline. He's already signed and playing in Staten Island.

Taylor Morton-RHP- HS (TN)

Morton has a decent arsenal of pitches but is another very raw pick- he’s relatively new to pitching. He offers a fastball, curve and change, all of which are average pitches. He throws in the low 90s now and is able to locate his curveball well. Morton will have to improve his command and get used to pitching every 5^th day but he has some good potential.

Ben Gamel- OF- HS (FL)

The little brother of Mat Gamel, Ben has less power than Mat but should hit better for average. He has an advanced approach and the rest of his game grades out as average across the board. Gamel doesn’t have the speed of CF so he’ll project as a corner outfielder.

Some other draftees of note- Daniel Burawa of St. Johns throws hard and projects as late inning reliever- the Yankees will wait to see how he pitches in Cape Cod….Kevin Jacob is another hard throwing bullpen type, with a fastball in the upper 90s and an above average slider….Evan Rutckyj is a big lefty out of Canada that dropped quite a bit in the draft. He has a good fastball and slider with a good amount of upside-again, he’s raw and hasn’t been pitching for very long but is pretty projectable….Kevin Jordan might be the late round steal for the Yankees who ended up dropping because he missed time with an extended illness-when he’s healthy he has plus power and is a good outfielder with wheels- a tough sign with the Wake Forrest commitment, but the Yankees will give it a shot…..Tyler Austin is a catcher who will end up in the outfield with a great bat and arm- he should hit for power as well as average and if the Yankees can sign him (rumor has it they're very close), he's a steal in the 13^th round…..Josh Dezse has a mid 90s fastball and the makings of a plus curve but is pretty raw and has a commitment to Ohio State that will be hard to peel him away from.

Chan Ho Park didn't pitch well last night. Chan Ho Park has not pitched well all season. Should the Yankees keep him around based on his strong relief performance with Philadelphia last season?

I think the answer is a simple no. The strength of Park's contract was that it was only for $1.2 million, which should take away any hesitation the Yankees have of letting him go. On the season, Park has a 5.75 FIP and an even worse 6.86 ERA. According to FanGraphs, he's been worth -0.2 WAR so far this season.

Relief pitching is volatile, so while Park's performance this season has been frustrating, it isn't enough alone to DFA him for. However, his true talent level may not be above replacement level. ZiPS projects that Park will have a 4.73 FIP for the rest of the season. My calculations indicate that relief pitcher replacement level is right around a 4.82 FIP. Basically, Park projects as replacement level.

As we know, there is no value to a replacement level pitcher; that is what replacement level means. These are guys that can be had off the scrap heap, and the Yankees have quite a few options that figure to be replacement level. Since the Yankees' prospects are unproven, there is much more uncertainty surrounding their projections, and they could even be substantially better than replacement level.

The options are all of the usual suspects. In Triple-A, the Yankees have Jonathan Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, Ivan Nova, and Romulo Sanchez. None of these guys really figure to be worse than replacement level, given their track records. I'd probably be hesitant to call up Sanchez given his walk rate this season, but the other guys all seem like better options than Park.

I'm not sure there's any real rush to get rid of Park, as he's one of the last guys out of the bullpen at this point. However, any opportunity you have to make the major league team better is one you have to take. I think arguments can be made for any of these guys to take Park's spot, and I don't see how you could choose Park over them.

Melancon struggled for a bit in Triple-A but has thrown 7.2 straight scoreless innings and needs a chance in the Bronx.

Albaladejo has been great all year long.

Nova has been pretty well and I like the idea of introducing him to the majors in the bullpen. If he pitched well out of the 'pen, it could increase his trade value and would give the Yankees some options.

Anyway, I assume the Yankees won't hold on to Chan Ho Park for too much longer. They know all of this as well as I do. Expect him to be designated for assignment at some point, and one of these four right handed pitchers will get the call to take his spot.

Photo Credit: Star Ledger

Yesterday, the Gulf Coast League Yankees opened their season with some big names. Starting the game was Manny Banuelos, who underwent an appendectomy right at the start of the season. He was not expected to miss this much time, but since it's not an injury, it's not like he had any setbacks and it really isn't a big deal. It's good to see him get back on the mound and face some live competition.

Banuelos pitched 2.0 innings, gave up one run on no hits, a walk, and he struck out two batters. I expect him to build up some arm strength and be promoted to Tampa very quickly. That rotation is pretty full right now, so I wonder if the Yankees will simultaneously promote Andrew Brackman to Double-A Trenton. It's a little disappointing that Banuelos missed half of the season, but if he has a strong second half, it will do a good job of reminding everyone why many considered him the top pitching prospect in the organization at the start of the season.

Photo Credit: The Yankee U

When the Yankee brass failed to get Gerrit Cole signed after the 2008 draft, it looked like the Yankees sixth round pick, Brett Marshall, was the pitching coup of the draft.

Even though he was straight out of high school, the Yankees sent him straight to Charleston, where he got off to a decent start and then began to tail off. He made 17 starts and then underwent Tommy John Surgery. His line:

17 GS, 87.1 IP, 98 H, 67 R, 54 ER, 7 HR, 37 BB, 60 K, 5.56 ERA, 4.45 FIP

Well, Marshall returned last night in relief of Banuelos and pitched three innings. He allowed four runs(1 ER) on three hits and three walks. He also struck out three. I wouldn't expect much from Marshall this year, as he tries to regain his command coming back from TJS. It will be good to see him getting innings, but next season is when we should start putting stock in what he does.

Photo Credit: Eric Kayne

While Marshall and Banuelos made their 2010 debuts, Gary Sanchez made his career debut. The catcher was the Yankees biggest international sign last season and has been drawing rave reviews ever since stepping foot in Yankee camp.

His first career game probably went a little better than he had hoped. In his second at bat, he stepped up to the plate with the bases loaded and hit a grand slam. He finished the game 2 for 4 with a homer, a strikeout, a walk, and an error.

CC is having his best month so far this year. In June he has a 2.48 ERA, 3.13 FIP, and a 3.46 xFIP, all excellent numbers. His improved numbers have come mainly by way of improved strikeout numbers. His K/9 this month is 8.69, over 1.4 more strikeouts per nine than any other month, a huge jump. He is punching out more batters this month because of nastier secondary pitches:

March-May (SL = slider, CH = changeup, CU = curveball):

June:

As you can see, his secondary pitches are being swung through quite often now. What's also really important here is that in June, he has thrown his slider for a strike way more often than earlier in the year, suggesting improved command. When looking at the movement of his pitches, one can see that his breaking ball(s?) especially have sharpened up:

March-May

June

In June he has lost a considerable amount of horizontal movement, but gained vertical movement (assuming that his curveball and slider are basically the same pitch). This indicates that his slider/curve was a little flat earlier in the year, and he has since added more tilt to the pitch.

His release points also look a little tighter:

March-May                                                                                               June

*obviously the march-may chart is going to be more crowded (than the June chart) because of more pitches thrown during that time-period. Additionally, the horizontal changes in release point  may have more to do with changes in where Sabathia stands on the rubber than actual release point differences. I also apologize for the changing color of the pitches from chart to chart.

It certainly looks like Sabathia has found his secondary pitches, particularly his slider/curve. He's throwing his slider/curve with better tilt and much better command. This improvement can also be seen by looking at linear weight values, found on Fangraphs:

As a result of his improved secondary pitches, batters are chasing balls and swinging through Sabathia's pitches more often:

It is quite clear that his secondary pitches are better this month than previously in the year (march-april), yet for some reason Sabathia is actually throwing fastballs more often.

Tomorrow will be like any other day for CC. He will wake up in the morning and run to his computer to check www.pendingpinstripes.net/, his favorite blog. When he does, I hope he will realize that he has found his awesome secondary pitches, and that he should probably throw them over 30% of the time.