Prospects Paradise Yankee List
Written by Sean P   
Saturday, 23 January 2010 12:06
I recently stumbled across another prospect list for the Yankee system, this one by Prospect Paradise. It's a little belated (before losing Arodys Vizcaino) but its a pretty solid list. Luke Gude does a real good job at his site, check it out for yourself.
 
How Much Is The Yankees Farm System Worth?
Written by Greg Fertel   
Wednesday, 20 January 2010 12:49

As many of you know, Victor Wang did some research where he was able to assign a dollar value to the different grade prospects based on John Sickels rankings. The dollar values are laid out at Beyond the Boxscore and Doug Gray over at Reds Minor Leagues ranked all the farm systems using this method.

He only counted C+ prospects and better, because not all grade C prospects are listed on Minor League Ball. The Yankees ranked 19th on the list with a farm system worth $85.18 million. The Indians ranked first with a value of $150.94 million. Here's how it broke down for the Yankees:

individualvalue

As you can see, Jesus Montero represents a very large chunk(38%) of the Yankees farm system's value. Montero makes the system hitter-heavy, even though the system is usually thought of as pitcher heavy.

Now, given that the Yankees traded away some top prospects, being ranked 19th isn't terrible. If the Yankees held onto Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, and Michael Dunn, their system would have been ranked 11th with a value of $110.18 million, which is a much more suitable number.

There is no doubt that the Yankees' system took a big hit this offseason, but the system has still remained in the middle of the pack. I expect the Yankees to rebound a bit this season with some draft picks and hopefully with some breakout performances.

 
New York Yankees Prospects to Watch
Written by Sean P   
Tuesday, 19 January 2010 18:44

As we're currently in the real duldrums of winter and Yankee news is scarce, we're going to start a new series here that will complement our prospect profiles for the next couple weeks. In these new reports, we'll highlight some guys outside of our top 30 profiles that we feel you should watch in 2010, for good or bad reasons. We'll feel our way through this and hopefully you'll appreciate and enjoy our efforts.

We'd also love to get some feedback on some guys you think should be interesting to watch in 2010 for whatever reason. Feel free to comment below with any additional names and/or thoughts about our list.

 

David Phelps:

Phelps has done nothing but post good results since being drafted in 2008 yet his stock hasn’t been particularly high because his stuff wasn’t particularly good. He has a good sinking two-seam fastball along with solid slider, but the change up and curveball are average or worse pitches. Working diligently in 2009 to turn the slider into a plus pitch seems to have panned out. Phelps raised his K/9 rate to a career high 7.51 in A+ Tampa while continuing to exhibit the command and control he’s been lauded for in the past (1.41 BB/9). With reports that his fastball has ticked back up into the low 90’s and that he had hit 94 with his four seam fastball, Phelps should be one to watch in Trenton at some point in 2010.

Grant Duff:

Duff was a gigantic disappointment as a starter out of college from the 2004 draft. His resurgence however was predicated on a switch to the bullpen where his average/below average command could play up. A few mechanical adjustments led Duff to rediscover the velocity the Yankees once saw from him- his fastball sits north of 95 consistently. The velocity improvement was seen in his slider as well which now is consistently around 85ish and he ditched the changeup he could never quite corral for a splitter that's turned into a good swing and miss pitch. Duff wasn’t added to the 40 man roster like some thought he would be but did show up in the AFL with decent results. The lack of command will perennially hold Duff back and his age really dims his prospect status, however assuming his stuff doesn’t diminish, he’ll be closely watched for further progress in 2010.

Gary Sanchez:

The most natural (as well as exceedingly unfair) comparison for Sanchez is with Jesus Montero since their both international signings who happen to play catcher. But early reports on Sanchez have drawn those comparisons in his extremely limited time in the system. Sanchez is a much better defensive catcher than Montero, with almost everyone saying defensively he should be able to stick at the position while mentioning his solid athleticism. His hitting ability isn’t quite as pronounced as Montero’s, but his plate discipline and approach have opened plenty of eyes because such young international players rarely have those traits before landing in the states. At 16, that's obviously understandable. I have no idea where Sanchez will start in 2010 but we may soon have yet another big time catching prospect to drool over.

Zolio Almonte:

Almonte was the terribly disappointing 2005 international free agent who had utterly failed to do anything successfully- until 2009 that is. Almonte had his best year yet in 2009 in Staten Island improving across the board in almost every facet of his game. The OBP which previously looked like .307 and .291 jumped to .355. The SLG which was always south of .400 turned into .440. Almonte turned in a league adjusted wRC+ of 134 and a .371 .wOBA. The question is was 2009 a fluke or something real? There are points and counterpoints for both sides. On one hand, Almonte is just 20 years old with plenty of room for growth physically and international signees can be notoriously raw. He’s also a switch hitter which is a skill that can be hard to develop and take time to progress. His BABIP was also not crazy, which would traditionally be the sign of a lucky season (.330). His BB% jumped nearly 4 percent to a healthy 10.7 percent.

Also, coaches were impressed by the consistency of his swings for once - his opposite field approach was fine tuned and he had a good swing from both sides of the plate (he’s a natural right handed hitter). On the other hand however, Almonte isn’t really any sort of promising prospect. His “breakout” season was captivating for him given his previous level of success, but it wasn’t generally breath taking by any stretch (.166 ISO won’t wow anyone). Additionally Almonte, at least according to scouts, doesn’t really have great tools to dream on. While his swing led many to believe he could be a .300 hitter, his first few seasons were just awful enough to make many reevaluate that claim. I would still say that there’s almost no real hope for Almonte to turn into anything of value. I place no real expectations on him for further development at all really, but his 2009 performance IS noteworthy none the less. So regardless of his ultimate utility, it will still be interesting to see what Almonte has to offer as a starting OF in Charleston this season.

 
Very In-Depth Top 50 Yankee Prospect List
Written by Greg Fertel   
Friday, 15 January 2010 14:59
James Esatto over at Fonzie Forever puts together his top fifty Yankee prospects and writes a paragraph on every single one. It comes out to a cool 5000+ word piece. My hat is off to him, it's a job very well done. Check it out.
 
Prospect Profile #14: DJ Mitchell, RHP
Written by Sean P   
Thursday, 14 January 2010 15:14

DJ Mitchell

DJ Mitchell

6'0" 175 LBS

RHP

 

Year Age Tm W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 22 2 Teams 12 7 2.63 25 24 140.1 124 57 41 2 44 125 9 1.197 8.0 0.1 2.8 8.0 2.84
2009 22 Tampa 8 6 2.87 19 18 103.1 93 41 33 1 38 83 8 1.268 8.1 0.1 3.3 7.2 2.18
2009 22 Charleston 4 1 1.95 6 6 37.0 31 16 8 1 6 42 1 1.000 7.5 0.2 1.5 10.2 7.00
1 Season 12 7 2.63 25 24 140.1 124 57 41 2 44 125 9 1.197 8.0 0.1 2.8 8.0 2.84
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/14/2010.

 

DJ Mitchell was drafted in the 10th round of the 2008 draft out of Clemson University. He signed for a 400,000 bonus which was seen as a lot but the Yankees had a keen eye on the precocious and recently converted sinkerballer- Mitchell had just started pitching full time in 2006 (formerly a slick fielding CF) and the Yankees decided to take a chance on him.

Somewhat incredibly, Mitchell’s final season at Clemson in 2008, his junior year, was just his 2nd full season as a pitcher. He was part of a staff that included future 2009 draft pick Graham Stoneburner and delivered very impressive results. As a full time starter for the first time, Mitchell allowed just 5 HRs in about 99 IPs while posting a 9.7 K/9 rate.

Mitchell signed late and wasn’t able to see any action in 2008 with the Yankees but did pitch in the instructional league as well as at the Dominican Republic complex in some scrimmages. Mitchell when drafted had a repertoire that consisted of a 4 seam fastball sitting around 91-93, a 2 seam fastball, his best pitch with terrific sink and tail around 88-91, a slurvey curveball/slider offering in the low 80s and a very raw change up sitting around 78-79. The Yankee staff set to work refining his secondary offerings and heading into 2009, they focused almost exclusively on his breaking ball.

Mitchell’s 2009 success was predicated on the development of his curveball. Once a pitch that was inconsistent with command and movement, Mitchell was able to use it often in order to throw strikes (something he has always done exceedingly well). The velocity dropped down and he added a bit more 12-6 movement to the curveball but he kept the command he displayed in instructs and spring training. The results were spectacular.

Starting in A Charleston, Mitchell went 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 6 games started. In the 37 innings in Charleston Mitchell had 42 Ks and just 6 BBs- a ridiculous 7.0 K/BB ratio. The Yankees quickly moved him up to A+ Tampa where he got hammered in his first start (6 ER) but then settled in and continued to impress. In Tampa he went 8-6 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 games started and 103 IP. The K% dropped a bit and the BB% rose, but they were still acceptable levels for Mitchell’s development (83K/38BB- 2.18 K/BB ratio). Even more amazing throughout the season Mitchell only allowed 2 HRs, and his FIP for the season was 2.85. With the terrific 2-seam fastball it was no surprise that Mitchell only allowed 2 HRs the entire season. Additionally he had a groundball rate of 62%.

Some concerns remain however.

Mitchell was a bit old for his level- he turned 22 in August. However 2009 was just his FOURTH season pitching. It was his second as a full time starter- he had never started more than 14 games before 2009.

A bigger concern is made over his struggle against left handed hitters. Lefties on the season hit .287/.381/.316 against Mitchell. A couple of caveats should be mentioned along with those numbers however. First, Mitchell’s BABIP against lefties was nearly 40 points higher than his season average. When adjusting Mitchell’s season split for luck, his BABIP drops from .340 to .317, with a few less doubles and a few more HRs.

However there’s no question that Mitchell struggled against lefties, at least in terms of his overall season. Again adjusting for luck, his FIP against left handed hitters jumps from 3.57 to 4.01. Mitchell also had a BB/9 against lefties of 3.10 (compared to 2.39 BB/9 overall) and a 5.59 K/9 against lefties (compared to 7.54 K/9 overall).

Again, there are some good signs though. Mitchell’s GB% remained the same for both lefties and righties which is a good sign. Its also natural for a RHP to have slightly worse numbers against lefties- that's how just how it goes. Additionally, Mitchell and Nardi Contreras both mentioned that Mitchell worked on throwing changeups to lefties, his worst pitch that needs the most work overall. Also, looking through Mitchell’s short career in Clemson reveals that he held lefties to batting averages below .200 both in 2007 and 2008.

Ultimately, the numbers against left handed hitters might be more of sample size issue. The mitigating factors are certainly worth taking into consideration and even though the splits weren’t HORRIBLE, it’s a situation that merits watching in 2010. His numbers will most likely invariably be worse against left handed hitters in his career but if its something more than that remains to be seen.

In 2010 Mitchell should start the season in AA. As we’ve discussed with his repertoire, his two fastballs, solid curveball and emerging change up should continue to progress. There is a reasonable amount of upside to Mitchell because A. he’s so incredibly new to pitching that there’s plenty of room for further growth and B. because he’s a rather slender 6’2”, 175 LBs that's focusing on adding weight which may or may not correlate into additional velocity. But there’s a chance at least.

I would say right now that Mitchell’s ceiling is probably as a 3-5 starter. The lack of velocity right now on his best offering (2-seam fastball) and his secondary pitches is what holds him back a bit in my mind. He does have room for growth though and he certainly could improve to the point where he would be something better than a 3-5 guy. 2010 should tell us a lot about DJ Mitchell though. As an older experienced college pitcher it’s not as hard to find success in the lower minors. The Trenton jump should be illuminating however. If he can keep his GB% up, his BB% down and K/9 rate high, Mitchell may in deed turn into something very interesting.

 
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