As you surely already know, Andy Pettitte suffered a groin injury and will be out for 4-5 weeks. Mike Axisa over at RAB already did a pretty good job of describing the Yankees' potential courses of action, so I won't repeat what he said. I would however like to discuss the idea of trading for a replacement.

Before delving too deep into this discussion, it's important to know that the Yankees seem to have already made their decision, starting Mitre on three day's rest yesterday to prepare him to take Pettitte's slot in the rotation.*

Because we know that Mitre is the in-house choice for the Yankees, we can properly evaluate any potential replacement for Pettitte. This is because the value of whoever the Yankees would trade for is primarily equal to the difference in performance of the traded for player over Mitre.

ZiPS pegs Mitre's current talent level at a ERA of 5.08 (also projecting both time in the rotation and the bullpen). For the purposes of this discussion, Let's assume Mitre would perform as a 5.00 ERA pitcher, with an average of 5 innings per start over 6 starts. This would mean that Mitre would allow 16.66666 runs.

How does a player like Ted Lilly compare?

ZiPS puts Lilly's current talent level at an ERA of 3.91. This seems overly generous when looking at Lilly's 4.62 xFIP, but for again for the purposes of simplicity we will assume that Lilly would perform as a 4.00 ERA pitcher. If we assume he would average 6 innings a start over 6 starts, then he would allow 16 runs. So Lilly would allow about 1 run less than Mitre in 6 more innings. Those 6 innings are obviously going to be filled by the bullpen. Yankee relievers this year have an ERA of 4.17. This means that in those 6 innings, the Yankees relievers would allow 2.78 runs, which we will round up to three. Subtract these three runs from Lilly's 16 run total and you get that Lilly would save about 3.44 runs more than Mitre.

The immediate value of trading for a Lilly type is equal to about a third of a win above replacement. If we assume that one win above replacment is equal to about 4.5 million on the free agent market, than a third of a win is equal to 1.5 million. Thanks to Victor Wang, we know that this is about equal to a grade C pitching prospect (as graded by John Sickels) 23 years or older. Without spending too much time looking at Sickel's previous rankings, this would seem like a Romulo Sanchez type of prospect. In other words, the immediate value of trading for a Lilly-type pitcher is not worth very much.

From a short term perspective, trading for a pitcher (that reasonably can be acquired) doesn't make a lot of sense. The Yankees simply don't need the help. They are on the (good) side of the marginal win curve where adding more talent doesn't do a whole lot, at least in the regular season (adding a Cliff Lee type for the postseason is another issue).

(more after the break)

AAA: 17.2 IP, 21 H, 0 HR 4 ER, 0 BB, 19 K, 2.04 ERA, 1.06 FIP, 60% GB

AA: 88.1 IP, 62 H, 2 HR, 20 ER, 23 BB, 84 K, 2.04 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 50% GB

While David Phelps has only made three starts for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he couldn't have pitched much better in them. Leaving Phelps off of my top 30 prospects in the offseason garnered some criticism, and rightly so.

Success is nothing new for Phelps; he has pitched great since the Yankees selected him in the 14th round of the 2008 draft. He has not posted an ERA above 2.80 or a FIP above 3.70. He has also never walked more than 6.7 percent of the hitters he has faced. However, the most encouraging thing I see from Phelps is that his strikeout rate has risen every time he has advanced a level.

Obviously, his current Triple-A walk rate is going to increase, but that isn't stopping me from raising my expections of Phelps. There is no doubt that his stock has increased greatly this year.

The improvements in his slider and changeup have given him secondary pitches to complement his good 92 mph fastball which he commands greatly. Phelps has zoomed through the system, and won't be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2012 offseason. This means the Yankees can take their time with him, so don't expect him to be added to the 40-man roster until some time next season if the Yankees need him.

I admit I missed the boat on Phelps in the offseason, but I'm on the bandwagon now. The 23-year-old David Phelps has turned himself into a solid pitching prospect this season.

Earlier Greg wrote about the Tampa trio in Trenton. Today I'd like to talk about another trio, one that will play a large part in deciding future AL East races:

Phil Hughes, David Price, and Clay Buchholz

So far in their young careers, they have performed like this:

Which one is the best now?

So far this season, the three have performed like this:

Looking only at ERA, Buchholz and Price seem to match up rather well. Yet, a step closer reveals a different story

FIP suggests that these three have actually pitched very similarly, and that Price and Buchholz are due for some regresson.

With these three, an even more scrutinous lens seems necessary, so lets see what xFIP has to tell us:

Interesting. The real match up here seems to be between Hughes and Price, and not between Price and Buchholz as ERA showed.

Bucholz' ERA seems to be based largely on flukesy BABIP (.275 this year, compared to .303 career) and HR/FB (3.6% this year, compared to 10.5% career) figures. From this we can infer that Buchholz is much more of a low 4's pitcher.

Price also seems to be due for some regression. He has a very low BABIP, of .276. While is it true that he has a career .277 BABIP, it is unlikely this continues, unless Price is a truly exceptional pitcher. There's simply not enough data to conclude Price can limit BABIP to that extent, although I wouldn't be surprised if he did have some BABIP limiting skill. Price also has a very high strand rate of 80% and a lowish HR/FB rate.

Hughes' performance on the other hand seems rather sustainable. His BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB are all in line with career figures.

Finishing thoughts:

Hughes and Price seem to match up quite well. Once you look past ERA, they have very similar overall talent levels. This is not to say that Buchholz is a bad pitcher, or even that far behind Price and Hughes. Clay is a good young pitcher, but for now, he's not quite on the same level as Hughes and Price.

I would have like to included these pitchers' innings eating ability, but then I realized that how many innings they throw per start likely has a lot to do with their respective teams' development approaches (at this point in their careers).

With news of Adam Warren's promotion, the Yankees have now called up three of their opening day starters in Tampa up to Double-A Trenton. Currently, the rotation appears to be Warren, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, DJ Mitchell, and Lance Pendleton.

I'll be focusing on the first three, because they are the best prospects of the bunch, and all have made a significant jump in both value and level this season. The move from A-ball to Double-A is considered a big one for pitchers(bigger than from Double-A to Triple-A).

For many pitchers whose results are better than their stuff, Double-A is where they begin to struggle. Noesi has been considered a guy with no dominant pitches, but good command of all of his average pitches. I'm not sure that is a fair assessment, as he has hit 94 recently and sits in the low 90s with great command.

That's not top-notch velocity, but if he's consistently hitting 92 with pinpoint command, that's one very good pitch. Noesi predictably dominated in Tampa this year, after doing the same in a short stint with the team last season. His promotion to AA Trenton did not slow him down. Noesi's line with the Thunder:

62 IP, 48 H, 12 ER, 5 HR, 11 BB(1 IBB), 55 K, 1.6 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 5.0 K:BB, 1.74 ERA, 3.15 FIP

His strikeout rate is down a bit from his time in Tampa, but not many pitchers are going to sustain a K/9 rate above 11. Overall, his strikeout rate is only slightly down from his time in A-ball last season(22.8% from 25%). More impressive, though, is his walk rate. At 4.6 percent, it is his highest since 2009, but still is extremely good. I expected AA to be more of a challenge for Noesi, but thus far it just hasn't been.

Look for Noesi to keep this up and possibly get a cameo in Scranton this season. Being on the 40-man could mean he might even get called up in September if the Yanks need an extra arm. Having a guy with Noesi's control in the bullpen couldn't hurt.

The next starter promoted from Tampa to Trenton was the famed Brackman, who many had given up on when he had a poor start to the season and his stuff looked terrible. Even though we're talking about prospects here, and this should be a given, patience is key. Brackman always was a bit of a project that was going to take some time. He went on to pitch great and was promoted to Trenton where he has made four starts.

Things have not been as rosy for Brackman, though. His Trenton line:

20.2 IP, 24 H, 13 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB, 18 K, 3.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.57 K:BB, 5.66 ERA, 4.07 FIP

It's a small sample and it takes time to adjust to a new level, so there are some goods and bads in his AA performance so far. His strikeout rate has barely declined, which is good. On the bad side, his walk rate has doubled and his ground ball rate has declined from 58 to 37 percent. He's only made four starts in Trenton so it's unfair to make any judgement yet. I'm optimistic he'll start to pitch better.

The final promotion was to Warren, who has yet to appear in a game for Trenton. In an interview with NoMaas, VP of Baseball Operations Mark Newman said, in regards to a promotion for Warren:

"This is Adam Warren's first full season, so we're not going to go crazy with these guys."

I figured this meant that the Yankees wouldn't promote Warren so soon, but I guess they couldn't justify holding him back when he was performing so well. Making the jump from Staten Island, Warren still hasn't been challenged. His strikeout, walk, and groundball rates all stayed about the same. This resulted in a phenomenal 2.22 ERA and 2.94 FIP.

Warren should be interesting to watch in Trenton; if he continues to pitch this well, he could be on the fast track to a big league job.

These three pitchers are all good prospects who have raised their stock enormously in the first half of the 2010 season. DJ Mitchell has struggled so far, but the four of them make up a talented rotation, one that is likely to graduate a few guys to the big league team in the Bronx at some point.

Here are some quick updates before you get yourself settled in for the all-star game.

Some quick numbers from the Yankee draft picks currently in the Cape Cod league:

Thomas Kahnle, Bourne Braves- 3 IP, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 H, 0 ER, 0.00 ERA

Thomas Kahnle, Brewster Whitecaps- 3.2 IP, 4 BB, 6 K, 6 H, 3 ER, 7.38 ERA

Martin Viramontes, Orleans Firebirds- 14.1 IP, 9 BB, 10 K, 9 H, 4 ER, 2.51 ERA

Dan Burawa, Harwich Mariners- 12.2 IP, 9 BB, 15 K, 11 H, 4 ER, 2.81 ERA

Cameron Hobson, Orleans Firebirds- 24.1 IP, 5 BB, 12 K, 17 H, 8 ER, 2.96 ERA

Stewart IJames, Yarmouth Dennis Red Sox- .197/.328/.288 1 HR, 1 SB

The Yankees are essentially waiting to see how these guys do and then will offer to sign who they like most. Keith Law commented in June that Dan Burawa was impressive as a closer, sitting 93-96 but exhibited a long delievery and some command issues. We'll see how it goes.

- Tyler Austin played in his first GCL game today, going 0-2 with a strike out as the DH. Austin is a precoious catcher who likely will wind up in the OF at some point. Here's what Baseball America said:

" Austin is rough defensively behind the plate, negating his arm strength, and might be better served by a move to third base or perhaps a corner outfield spot. He has excellent raw pull power and runs well enough for a move to the outfield, though he figures to slow down as he matures and fills out."