Organizational Pitching Leaderboard 7/21/10
Written by Greg Fertel   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 10:00
pitchersleader
  • Dellin Betances only has 45 innings pitched on the year, otherwise I'm sure he would have made an appearance.
  • For you River Ave Blues fans, Melvin Crousset makes an appearance on the leaderboards, as he's repeating the DSL... again.
  • Hector Noesi, Shaeffer Hall, and Graham Stoneburner pretty much dominated the list. These guys are all putting together ridiculous seasons. While not getting Dan Haren hurt a bit, at least it means we get to keep watching Noesi and other young pitchers.

 

 
Overall, 2009 Draftees Having Success in 2010
Written by Greg Fertel   
Monday, 26 July 2010 17:30

It's obviously way too early to judge a draft class; usually you can't do that for five or six years. However, that won't stop me from taking a look at how the 2009 draftees have performed so far in 2010.

Slade Heathcott, 1st Round, Current Team: Charleston RiverDogs

175 PA, 44 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 9 SB, 5 CS, 17 BB, 41 K, .289/.370/.362

Not an exciting start, but also not a disappointed one. He's only 19, so the lack of power is pretty standard. His strikeout rate of 23.4% is higher than I'd like to see, but it's really too early to make statistical conclusions on Heathcott. Overall, I'd say Heathcott's performance has been neutral.

J.R. Murphy, 2nd Round: Charleston RiverDogs

249 PA, 54 H, 11 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 SB, 3 CS, 16 BB, 45 K, .238/.286/.322

Murphy's offensive numbers are pretty poor, but he is also one of the youngest players in the Sally league. He just turned 19 in May, so he's ahead of schedule. He's been splitting time between DH and catcher, which I'm a fan of. While it might slow down his catching development, it should also prevent some wear and tear on his body. Josh Norris of The Trentonian sat down for a chat with Murphy, so check that out.

Adam Warren, 4th Round, Trenton Thunder

93 IP, 72 H, 23 ER, 2 HR, 22 BB, 77 K, 6 HBP, 2 WP, 2.23 ERA

Out of all of the players the Yankees took in the 2009 draft, Warren has probably raised his stock the most. He dominated in Staten Island last year and is already pitching in AA in his first full professional season. His first two starts for Trenton have been so-so(10 K, 5 BB, 2 wild pitches), so we'll see how he does for the rest of the year at this level.

Caleb Cotham, 5th Round, N/A

Cotham underwent a second knee surgery(first was during college) and has yet to appear in a game this season. Last I heard, he expected to get into game action at some point this season, but I haven't heard any updates since then.

Graham Stoneburner, 14th Round, Tampa Yankees

19 GS, 104.1 IP, 68 H, 27 ER, 5 HR, 26 BB, 108 K, 7 HBP, 4 WP, 2.33 ERA

If Warren's stock has risen the most since the day of the draft, Stoneburner isn't too far behind him. He has been absolutely dominant this season, striking out more than a batter per inning and walking only 6.6 percent of the batters he has faced. At 22 years old, he's beginning to emerge as one of the better pitching prospects in the Yankees organization.

Bryan Mitchell, 16th Round, GCL Yankees

6 G, 5 GS, 23.1 IP, 22 H, 15 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 17 K, 3 HBP, 4 WP, 5.79 ERA

Mitchell was a big signability case, but the Yankees ended up inking him for $800,000. He's 19 and has yet to hit his stride, but the Yankees still have high hopes for him. The control is clearly a problem right now, but we're only talking about the first few innings of his career.

Luke Murton, 19th Round, Charleston RiverDogs

294 PA, 73 H, 25 2B, 8 HR, 26 BB, 40 K, .282/.364/.471

At 24, he's quite old for A-ball, but his numbers are almost identical to what he did for Staten Island last season.

Kevin Mahoney, 23rd Round, Trenton Thunder

161 PA, 39 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 4 SB, 1 CS, 22 BB, 38 K, .298/.422/.511

Mahoney is quickly becoming one of my favorite players from the 2009 draft. He is a phenomenal athlete and it really shows on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, he posted a ridiculous +14 TotalZone in just 57 games at third base. At the same time, his hitting struggles as a 22 year old in the GCL made me write him off. This year, he's turned it around by showing a tremendous walk rate and cutting down on the strikeouts. It's a small sample, but it was enough for the Yankees to quickly promote him from Charleston to Trenton where he will serve as the team's utility player. If his defensive performance from 2009 is any indication, he should be able to handle shortstop adequately, and be a plus at the other infield positions.

Shaeffer Hall, 25th Round, Tampa Yankees

17 GS, 106.1 IP, 90 H, 24 ER, 2 HR, 18 BB, 77 K, 2 HBP, 1 WP, 2.03 ERA

Hall has been quite a surprise this season. When he started opening day for Charleston, I had no idea who he is. However, when you start the season with no walks in 21.2 innings, I'll take notice. Since then, Hall earned a promotion to Tampa and has been even better there by posting a 2.66 FIP(2.90 in Charleston). His stuff isn't overpowering, but he has great command and that is where his success has come from this year.

 

That's just an outline of some of the main prospects the Yankees picked in the 2009 draft. Of course, others have struggled, but they weren't as highly regarded in the first place. Neil Medchill has probably been the biggest disappointment this season, after dominating the NYPL last year, but I don't think that has really surprised anyone. Evan DeLuca has also gotten off to a poor start, but like Mitchell, it's just the first few innings of his career.

 
Ramiro Pena's Utility
Written by Sean P   
Sunday, 25 July 2010 11:25
Getty Images
Getty Images

To my surprise and yours, Ramiro Pena is still a Yankee. It somehow boggles the mind but Pena has been able to stay on the roster all year despite posting a .193/.236/.205 line. Yes, you’re reading that correctly- a .205 SLG% (That’s the lowest in baseball for anyone over 90 PA’s- besides of course, Ken Griffey Jr.) While I can’t really buy into a UZR with the sample size of Ramiro Pena’s, the defense has been average at best according to several metrics leading to a team worst WAR of -0.6 (17th worst in baseball for 90 PAs).

Most of Pena’s value as we know is tied up in his ability to play SS. Somewhat surprisingly though we’ve seen Pena play 20 more innings at 3B this year than SS. This is pretty unfortunate because until recently, Kevin Russo would have been the best choice to play 3B when ARod is at DH.

Does it matter? It’s pretty crazy to quibble about a bench spot on a team who has the best record in baseball. However the Yankees are playing Pena a bit more than he probably deserves and they’re actively searching the trade market for a utility player that, you know, doesn’t suck. Are there any internal upgrades over Pena though? After all, how hard is it to find someone better than .193/.236/.205?

We know the Yankees like Pena because he has positional utility, they like his defense and ability to run a bit. Let’s take a look at some internal candidates who could fit this bill.

Eduardo Nunez- It pains me to say it, but Nunez would almost be a certain upgrade over Pena at this point. Nunez has a MLB translated line of .271/.316/.349- it’s amazing this would constitute a drastic upgrade. Nunez has reportedly been better with the glove, but defense isn’t his calling card at all. Coupled with the fact that almost all of Nunez’s abilities are tied up in batting average, it’s tough to say how much of an upgrade this would be.

Eric Bruntlett- Just wanted to point out that this would NOT be an upgrade, at all- Bruntlett is an awful, awful player. Should there ever be a sad day in the Bronx in which he hits the field, I’ll strongly consider committing seppuku in the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar.

Justin Snyder- Snyder would be a risk and likely end up like Ramiro Pena- totally overmatched at the plate. The big difference between Snyder and Pena (who can play around the infield some) is Snyder’s ability to reach base. He walks a lot, currently 19% in AA (!). With park and luck adjustments (.278 BABIP) he has a .839 OPS in Trenton. Snyder also bats from the left side and performs slightly worse against LHP for his career. In the end, Snyder probably just isn’t ready for MLB duty, but then again look at Pena. He wasn’t considered ready when he made the team last year and look how well….oh wait.

Kevin Russo- To me, this would be the most rational move. Russo got almost no playing time in New York but is almost certainly an upgrade over Pena. Although Russo is more of a 2B/3B guy, he HAS played SS in a pinch and is passable once every 2 weeks (about as often as Jeter is at DH).

And that’s really it. Trying to find guys who can play SS, 3B and 2B that can run, play some defense and are close to MLB ready is not an easy task in the Yankee organization. Reegie Corona is having a really bad year in AAA. Luis Nunez in Trenton isn’t the fielder that Pena is but has a similarly bad bat- yikes. Jose Pirela might be an interesting utility option down the line, but the 21 year old is in Tampa and isn’t anywhere close to MLB ready.

Again, does it matter much? I would say no if Pena was only playing SS every few weeks but with ARod’s hip issues, he’s seeing more time than he deserves. The Yankees have shown a reluctance to bring up real prospects and have them rot away on the bench so I can’t really see Nunez up until rosters expand. The best option is probably to trade for a low cost utility piece.

Sorry, Ramiro.
 
How Much Would Dan Haren Cost?
Written by Josh W.   
Friday, 23 July 2010 16:01

Recently the Yankees just missed out on acquiring Cliff Lee. It seems now they are looking to trade for a different top starter; Dan Haren.

A cursory glance at Haren's numbers would indicate a mediocre starter; a losing record and 4.60 ERA aren't exactly synonymous with success. But don't be fooled by such specious figures. Haren has been excellent this year, just as he has since 2005. He's fifth in the NL in xFIP at 3.39, just behind Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay,Adam Wainright, and Tim Lincecum.

Haren has been remarkably consisntent his entire career. He's been at least a 4 WAR pitcher every year since 2005, and he's topped 6 WAR the past two years. Whatever team acquires Haren (if any does) will have a much improved rotation.

He's also signed to a very favorable contract. He's making just 8.25 mil this year, and will make 12.75 mill in 2011 and 2012. He has an option for 15.5 mil in 2013. Assuming he would produce 2 more WAR (this season) for whatever team acquired him (perhaps a tad generous), and a .5 WAR decline every year afterward, and he would create 12.5 WARs through 2013. If each WAR will cost 4.5 mil in the free agent market during that time span, than Haren will be worth 56.25 million, but will get paid 45.125 million. If he performs at this assumed pace, he will also likely be a type-A free agent, in which case we can add 5 mil to his total value of 16.125 million.

For comparison, Cliff Lee projected at the time of his trade for about 18.7 mil in surplus value. Thanks to Victor Wang's research, we know that Haren's surplus value would be about equivalent to a package including a top 51-75 hitting prospect and and grade C pitching prospect (John Sickel's rankings). This would probably be a package of Austin Romine and Romulo Sanchez (or Mark Melancon depending on how much you think he has slipped).

It's doubtful the Diamondbacks would accept such a package. They have set the asking price at "high quality major league pitching." It's anyone's guess as to what exactly the Diamonbacks want, but I doubt they would accept Ivan Nova or a similar prospect has high quality major league pitching. This probably means that Joba would be likely included in the talks between the two teams (make no mistake, young pitchers with good stuff are a highly valued commodity).

Now, as I have discussed, The Yankees are already a 100 win team that has an excellent chance at making the postseason. For the regular season, Haren is not necessary.

Yet the Yankees clearly feel that they should acquire a top of the rotation starter to help them in the playoffs. It's very hard to put an exact number on how much Haren would help in the postseason. The Yankees clearly value winning the World Series NOW, and any assesment of Haren's value is incomplete without including his probable postseason value. If the Yankees do acquire Haren, I will attempt to address his postseason value in a later post.

 
Minor League Hitting Leaderboard 7/22/10
Written by Greg Fertel   
Thursday, 22 July 2010 10:00

leadertable

 

And just a few thoughts and observations:

  • I am a Justin Snyder fan. With just a .241 AVG, he's still managed an above average .346 wOBA. Now if he could just figure out how to hit a little better...
  • Jesus Montero is barely featured on the leaderboards due to his poor start. However, if we did a "past month" leaderboard, I'd guess that Montero would top almost every category.
  • I don't know anything about Jorge Alcantara, but he could be a guy to watch, based on how well he showed up on these leaderboards.
  • One of the reasons I've been more down on Brandon Laird and Eduardo Nunez is because they don't show up much when you look past the basic stats like HR, AVG, and RBI. Laird made a good showing this time though, and his power can't be ignored. Nunez, on the other hand, still has what I'd call an empty batting average.
  • Jimmy Paredes can run.
  • Thus far, Gary Sanchez and Yeicok Calderon have exceeded any hype they have gotten in the past. Small sample size definitely applies though.
  • Luke Murton continues to be solid under the radar, but he's a bit old for his level.
 
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