Sorry to continue to delve into the fifth starter debate, but Jay at Fack Youk posted an idea that I thought was definitely worth looking into and commenting on.

Jay suggests that the Yankees may be best off by naming Phil Hughes the fifth starter and sending Joba Chamberlain to Triple-A to work on his repertoire, and get some more experience starting.

At first, I'm opposed to the idea. As a major league team, it's best to have your twelve best pitchers on the roster and utilize them in the most efficient and best way possible. Here are some of Jay's key points, all of which make sense to some extent:

• Chamberlain has only 88.1 innings in the minors, with only eight of those coming in Triple-A.
• He is not the same pitcher he was before his injury in 2008. His velocity is down and his stuff does not seem as sharp.
• He is trying to work in his curveball and changeup more, two pitches that he did not use frequently as a reliever.
• If the Yankees send Chamberlain to the minors to be a starter instead of using him out of the pen,"due to bullpen chaining, it's not likely to make that much of a difference."

The first three points are facts and I can't argue with those. What I did want to take a look at was how much it would cost the Yankees to send Chamberlain to Triple-A and replace him with whatever bullpen filler the Yankees so choose(Boone Logan, Jonathan Albaladejo, etc.).

Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Boxscore recently shared a bullpen chaining spreadsheet and I figured this would be an opportune time to try that out. Starting with a bullpen where Mariano Rivera is the closer and Chamberlain is the setup man and include leverage, the Yankees' bullpen(using CHONE) projects to be 69 runs above replacement. Replacing Chamberlain with a replacement-level reliever who projects to have a 4.75 ERA, the Yankees' bullpen would project to be 61 runs above replacement.

The difference of eight runs is close to a win, and shouldn't be ignored. The question is whether the development Chamberlain would get in Triple-A is more important to the Yankees than the one win he would add to the bullpen. Personally, I don't know if facing Triple-A hitters would help his development.

While it is Jay's idea, he doesn't seem to be very confident it would either, stating, "I'm fairly certain it might help him work on some of the skills it takes to be a starting pitcher." It's definitely an interesting idea and worth looking into, but I am not convinced.

I don't take spring training results very seriously, so I am still standing where I have all along. Entering the season, Joba Chamberlain should be the fifth starter, and Phil Hughes should be in the bullpen ready to fill in if/when the Yankees need him.

Photo Credit: Getty Images

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Comments (9)

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written by Eli Kramer, March 17, 2010

Would you mind sharing the order of your chaining? Since calculating Joba's value this way requires assumptions of who pitches in high leverage situations, it would be good to know what your assumptions were. Also, to that same end, what ERA values did you use? Did you take their full season ERA from last year, career, CHONE projections for 2010? Did you include Joba's ERA as a starter? All of these things are assumptions that are important in figuring out how relevant that final number is.

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written by Greg F., March 17, 2010

Of course, Eli. I used CHONE projections for 2010. I didn't use any starter numbers(CHONE is currently projecting Joba to be a reliever). The order of the bullpen to start was(with leverage in parentheses):

Mariano Rivera(1.
Joba Chamberlain(1.4)
David Robertson(1.1)
Damaso Marte(1.0)
Alfredo Aceves(.9)
Chan-Ho Park(.7)
Chad Gaudin(.5)
Mark Melancon(.5)

and a replacement with a 4.75 ERA replaced Joba and pushed everyone else up the ladder. Just didn't want to boggle down the post with these numbers, but of course I'm willing to share all the data I used.

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written by mainline, March 17, 2010

This is a pretty speculative question, but how do you think Joba would react to a demotions?

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written by Eli Kramer, March 17, 2010

Thanks a lot! I think the Joba question is much harder this year, I really don't know what to do with him. I'd love to see him become a starter, but not at the expense of Hughes losing his spot. If he is in the pen, it's time to get rid of this fine tuning 1 IP at a time thing. If he's almost good enough to be your 5th starter, then shouldn't he also be good enough to pitch, say 3 innings at a time in relief? Say Pettitte throws 5 solid innings and is running out of gas. Why not put Joba in for 3 innings then right to Mo? Or 2 innings, Robertson, Rivera. If he needs to be in the pen, then shouldn't the Yanks try to maximize his innings so he's ready for a spot start in a pinch?

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written by Greg F., March 17, 2010

@mainline: I have no idea but I imagine he would be upset. He hasn't pitched in the minors since 2007 so I'm sure he doesn't want to and probably doesn't think he deserves to be sent down. How he'd react, though, I won't even speculate on.

@Eli: Yeah, I totally agree with you. I think that whoever isn't in the rotation should be throwing multi-inning stints in the bullpen so that they can quickly fill in for a starter without a 3 week long transition. Whether it's Joba or Hughes in the bullpen, that's probably the best move.

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written by bottom line, March 18, 2010

Since Joba has not regained velocity and we continue to hear about his inconsistent mechanics, I would like to suggest a link between these two commonly reported realities.

Is it possible that Joba changed his arm angle after his late 2008 arm trouble? This would explain his loss of velocity. And if from time time he lets one loose from his old arm angle, it would also explain why he can sometimes touch 96 and also why his "mechanics" are inconsistent. I would note that Pedro Martinez (sorry to mention that name) also changed his arm angle after having shoulder issues and his velocity also declined.

I have not heard this idea before, though perhaps it has been suggested-- I certainly don't read everything. If true, it does make me wonder if surgery might have made sense at one point to allow Joba to keep pitching at a high level after recovery.

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written by Eli Kramer, March 18, 2010

@bottom line: Was it ever realistic to expect Joba to throw 98 all game as a starter? He threw a total of 190 MLB pitches in 2007. He was an amped up 22 year old giving everything on every pitch, and averaged 97.4 MPH on his fastball. Last year he threw over 2700 pitches at an average FB velocity of 92.5. That is a big drop, but in exchange his horizontal movement went from 2.2 to 4.2 (it was actually listed as negative movement, indicating tailing action).

Now, last season, there were only 3 starters in MLB who averaged over 95 on their fastballs: Ubaldo Jiminez (96.1), Justin Verlander (95.6), and Josh Johnson (95.1). Joba's 92.5 MPH is still in the top 25 among starters. His big problem is really about the walks. He's always behind in the count so batters can sit on pitches they want, and when they pound those pitches, there are guys on base because he walked them.

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written by Eli Kramer, March 18, 2010

Sorry, my source for all numbers in the previous post is fangraphs.com

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written by bottom line, March 18, 2010

Well, I hope you're right. I'd like to think arm problems and changed angle slot have nothing to do with it. It seems to me, though, his velocity was also down even in short stints out of the pen. Guess we're just going to have to let this play out.

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