Projecting Reserve Outfielders
Written by Sean P   
Thursday, 11 March 2010 23:43

A few days ago we took a look at the possibilities for utility infielders for the Yankees and now we'll look at the outfielders who have some sort of shot using CHONE and PECOTA.

As we said before, CHONE tends to be a little conservative in it's projections while PECOTA may or may not have some serious issues.We'll start with CHONE.

of_chone_projections

Right off the bat we see that the contest for starting left fielder is a little one sided. Brett Gardner, even with what I consider a very pessimistic offensive projection, profiles as by far the most valuable outfielder. His projected wOBA is actually LOWER than the one he posted last season. Randy Winn's projection is also extremely pessimistic. Again, I would definitely bet on him hitting considerably better that this. Given the number of PA's projected for Winn I would guess his WAR would be around 2, maybe just under it. Gardner SHOULD get more PAs than 404 and I would expect his WAR to be closer to 3.

One thing I would worry about slightly is the defensive projections. These are far from perfect and when considering the CHONE projections, the defensive numbers used are TotalZone, NOT UZR. Additionally the TotalZone numbers used for some of the minor league levels are not all the way reliable, as they're based on scoring data from unknown and sometimes mysterious sources. However, it's still quite a bit better than anything else available. I think it's more than safe to assume Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will both be defensive assets for the Yankees in 2010.

CHONE really likes the group defensively and generally speaking, most scouting reports I've seen agree with that sentiment.

PECOTA

pecota_of

Once again, TAv is true average which measures offensive value per out, is park adjusted, and includes steals among other things. Their defensive and WARP numbers are a little mysterious but they'll do.

Interestingly they have Brett Gardner projected as just a +1 defensive CF. I really can't buy into that at all and moving to LF full time would definitely increase that number. That would put him ahead in projected WARP even with the number of PA's he's projected to have. The Randy Winn projection I think is much better.

A few things stand out for me in these projections. The first is that both systems rate the group as plus defensively, which is definitely a very good thing. Brett Gardner should be the best choice for every day left fielder and Randy Winn should be in the mix but mainly as a 4th outfielder. As for who should take the final OF spot, Thames or Hoffmann, I could see it either way. Hoffmann has (at least some) upside and is a decent player all the way around while Thames is just a hitter and not a great one at that. Neither one will probably play a great deal and in a perfect world I would love to send Hoffmann to Scranton for playing time so he can reach whatever potential he may have. The Yankees don't have that choice however. With Thames's contract giving him the ability to opt out should he not make the team, the Yankees have an interesting choice to make among their backup outfielders.

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written by JMK, March 12, 2010
Good article, Sean. I'm also a bit surprised that Gardner's defensive projection is so low--it seems he'd be far better than a +1 defender, especially in LF.

However, I'm not sure the offensive projection at CHONE is "pessimistic" in the least. In fact, Gardner producing a .351 OBP would be a surprise to many; tons, myself included, don't think he'll walk that much, as pitchers will be very aggressive with the power-deficient Gardner. Without a higher contact rate, it'll be quite difficult to see him getting an OBP that high. Possible, yes? Probable? Hmmm...hard to say, but it's definitely not a pessimistic offensive projection.

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