DJ Mitchell

6'0" 175 LBS

RHP

DJ Mitchell was drafted in the 10^th round of the 2008 draft out of Clemson University. He signed for a 400,000 bonus which was seen as a lot but the Yankees had a keen eye on the precocious and recently converted sinkerballer- Mitchell had just started pitching full time in 2006 (formerly a slick fielding CF) and the Yankees decided to take a chance on him.

Somewhat incredibly, Mitchell’s final season at Clemson in 2008, his junior year, was just his 2^nd full season as a pitcher. He was part of a staff that included future 2009 draft pick Graham Stoneburner and delivered very impressive results. As a full time starter for the first time, Mitchell allowed just 5 HRs in about 99 IPs while posting a 9.7 K/9 rate.

Mitchell signed late and wasn’t able to see any action in 2008 with the Yankees but did pitch in the instructional league as well as at the Dominican Republic complex in some scrimmages. Mitchell when drafted had a repertoire that consisted of a 4 seam fastball sitting around 91-93, a 2 seam fastball, his best pitch with terrific sink and tail around 88-91, a slurvey curveball/slider offering in the low 80s and a very raw change up sitting around 78-79. The Yankee staff set to work refining his secondary offerings and heading into 2009, they focused almost exclusively on his breaking ball.

Mitchell’s 2009 success was predicated on the development of his curveball. Once a pitch that was inconsistent with command and movement, Mitchell was able to use it often in order to throw strikes (something he has always done exceedingly well). The velocity dropped down and he added a bit more 12-6 movement to the curveball but he kept the command he displayed in instructs and spring training. The results were spectacular.

Starting in A Charleston, Mitchell went 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 6 games started. In the 37 innings in Charleston Mitchell had 42 Ks and just 6 BBs- a ridiculous 7.0 K/BB ratio. The Yankees quickly moved him up to A+ Tampa where he got hammered in his first start (6 ER) but then settled in and continued to impress. In Tampa he went 8-6 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 games started and 103 IP. The K% dropped a bit and the BB% rose, but they were still acceptable levels for Mitchell’s development (83K/38BB- 2.18 K/BB ratio). Even more amazing throughout the season Mitchell only allowed 2 HRs, and his FIP for the season was 2.85. With the terrific 2-seam fastball it was no surprise that Mitchell only allowed 2 HRs the entire season. Additionally he had a groundball rate of 62%.

Some concerns remain however.

Mitchell was a bit old for his level- he turned 22 in August. However 2009 was just his FOURTH season pitching. It was his second as a full time starter- he had never started more than 14 games before 2009.

A bigger concern is made over his struggle against left handed hitters. Lefties on the season hit .287/.381/.316 against Mitchell. A couple of caveats should be mentioned along with those numbers however. First, Mitchell’s BABIP against lefties was nearly 40 points higher than his season average. When adjusting Mitchell’s season split for luck, his BABIP drops from .340 to .317, with a few less doubles and a few more HRs.

However there’s no question that Mitchell struggled against lefties, at least in terms of his overall season. Again adjusting for luck, his FIP against left handed hitters jumps from 3.57 to 4.01. Mitchell also had a BB/9 against lefties of 3.10 (compared to 2.39 BB/9 overall) and a 5.59 K/9 against lefties (compared to 7.54 K/9 overall).

Again, there are some good signs though. Mitchell’s GB% remained the same for both lefties and righties which is a good sign. Its also natural for a RHP to have slightly worse numbers against lefties- that's how just how it goes. Additionally, Mitchell and Nardi Contreras both mentioned that Mitchell worked on throwing changeups to lefties, his worst pitch that needs the most work overall. Also, looking through Mitchell’s short career in Clemson reveals that he held lefties to batting averages below .200 both in 2007 and 2008.

Ultimately, the numbers against left handed hitters might be more of sample size issue. The mitigating factors are certainly worth taking into consideration and even though the splits weren’t HORRIBLE, it’s a situation that merits watching in 2010. His numbers will most likely invariably be worse against left handed hitters in his career but if its something more than that remains to be seen.

In 2010 Mitchell should start the season in AA. As we’ve discussed with his repertoire, his two fastballs, solid curveball and emerging change up should continue to progress. There is a reasonable amount of upside to Mitchell because A. he’s so incredibly new to pitching that there’s plenty of room for further growth and B. because he’s a rather slender 6’2”, 175 LBs that's focusing on adding weight which may or may not correlate into additional velocity. But there’s a chance at least.

I would say right now that Mitchell’s ceiling is probably as a 3-5 starter. The lack of velocity right now on his best offering (2-seam fastball) and his secondary pitches is what holds him back a bit in my mind. He does have room for growth though and he certainly could improve to the point where he would be something better than a 3-5 guy. 2010 should tell us a lot about DJ Mitchell though. As an older experienced college pitcher it’s not as hard to find success in the lower minors. The Trenton jump should be illuminating however. If he can keep his GB% up, his BB% down and K/9 rate high, Mitchell may in deed turn into something very interesting.

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