Randy Winn vs. Johnny Damon
Written by Greg Fertel   
Friday, 29 January 2010 13:47

The reaction to the Yankees signing of Randy Winn has been mainly negative. One fan even cancelled his ticket plan because the Yankees "hav[sic] lost their focus of winning another championship this year." This morning, Tommy Bennett of Baseball Prospectus tweeted the following:

I wonder what percentage of Yankee fans realize that Randy Winn is just about as good a player as Johnny Damon. Over/under: 5%?

At first, this just didn't sound that accurate to me. Considering how poor Randy Winn's offense was in 2009, it's hard to believe that him and Damon project similarly in 2010. Factoring in defense, the two might be closer than you think.

The Fan's projections on FanGraphs are contrary to Bennett's assertion that fans don't realize the comparable value of the two players. Whether the fans realize it or not, as a whole they are projecting Randy Winn to be equivalent to Johnny Damon in 2010.

While Winn is projected for 1.6 WAR and Damon is projected for 2.2, their playing time differs. If you go by WAR/600 PA, the fans are projecting Damon to be worth 0.6 runs more than Winn, which is extremely negligible.

I'm pretty sure 99.9% of fans will tell you that Johnny Damon is better than Randy Winn, but when filling out their projections, they are calling the two players comparable. I think this is a very good utility of the Fan's projections, but it's always worth taking a look at multiple systems.

My projection system of choice is to use CHONE's offensive projections along with Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections for defense. Using this method, there is a much bigger discrepancy:

screen_shot_2010-01-29_at_3.04.18_pm

That's a difference of around 14 runs or 1.4 wins, which is a substantial difference. However, I think that Damon's UZR projection is wildly optimistic. I don't claim to be any type of scout, but anyone watching Damon play the outfield last season saw an aging outfielder with declining range and a terrible arm.

I think projecting Damon for -5 defensive runs is a better baseline that is still quite conservative. Even if you do that, there is still a one win difference between the two players.

Now, no one seems to think Damon will get more than a one-year, $7 million deal. Is that one win upgrade worth the extra $5 million? Given that teams have been paying $3.5-$4 million per WAR this offseason, it would not be worth it. Add in that one more win would barely help the Yankees, and it absolutely made sense to pass on Damon.

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PECOTA
written by Tommy Bennett, January 29, 2010
For what it's worth, PECOTA projects Damon at 2.4 WARP next season compared to Winn's 1.7 WARP (after giving Winn as many PAs as Damon is project to receive). Additionally, the fielding system used by PECOTA rates Winn just four runs better than Damon with the glove, an projection that is dubious. Both of them are dinged pretty hard by PECOTA's aging curve.

I think you're right that the cost-savings carry the day, and a platoon of the switch-hitting Winn with Brett Gardner could work out well.
It's Isn't Just About Stats
written by Karen W., January 29, 2010
Fans LIKE Johnny Damon, fans liked this TEAM. After The Yanks won it all in 1998 they were given the opportunity to win it again as a TEAM and I wish that had been the case this time. Hell, even the Sux, notorious for not paying for aging players - brought back Lowell based on his 2007 postseason.

I was toying with the idea of buying a package this year and now I'm not. I wanted BOTH Matsui and Damon back and I'm not getting either. I don't care that Damon's arm sucks he still has decent range and his swing was tailor made for Yankee Stadium. If people remember Damon almost single handedly carried the team in the beginning of last year when A-Rod was out and Tex was struggling and he is PROVEN post season player (ditto with Matsui)

Remember that home run against Bard? That to me was the single best moment of the regular season and the guy has the best moment of the playoffs and he's sent packing? BS
...
written by Sean P, January 29, 2010
Well thats really too bad, your gonna miss a great season.

I understand the whole sentiment regarding Johnny Damon. But comparing Johnny Damon to Randy Winn is a little apples to oranges because we know Damon and Winn are not going to have the same roles on the Yankees. Winn is going to be a bench player. Damon was your starting left fielder. So what your really comparing Damon too is either A) Curtis Granderson or B) Nick Johnson.
Here are the Chone Projections for each-

3.2 WAR- Damon
2.2 WAR- Johnson
4.4 WAR- Granderson

Now again, I totally agree with Greg that I think its unrealistic that Damon is going to be 7 runs above average in LF. Additionally, I don't think Johnson is going to play much in the field and I think the CHONE projection sells him a little short.

Additionally, I think Granderson is a good bet to be even better, because he'll probably slide over to LF where his defense will improve.

Anyway you cut it,worst case scenario for the entire season, you've just moved laterally in terms of production. Which is still really a win for the Yankees because they've cut costs and gotten younger.
Karen:
written by Greg F., January 29, 2010
I can understand your sentiments regarding Damon, but it's bad business to pay a player for what he has done. You want to be paying him for what he will do. You bring up Mike Lowell, and look at him now. The Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre to play third base and they would be ecstatic to be rid of Lowell's contract right now.

Granderson is known as one of the better personalities in baseball, so I think you'll be happy with him as Damon's essential replacement. I think that this is a silly reason to not buy tickets; I know I'll still be getting mine.
...
written by Matcohen, January 29, 2010
The appropriate comparison is to the starter that Damon would replace, which is Gardner.

Gardner and Damon are likely about the same, depending on assumptions about Gardner's defense. If Gardner is an above average defender, Damon is better by a little bit. If Gardner is an elite defender, he is better.

Either way, Damon isn't worth the extra money. The reason to keep him was perceived loyalty. The Yanks likely didn't want him given age and cost. Boras and Damon played into their hands by being high handed.

The Yanks got what they wanted - Damon is gone, replaced by younger, cheaper alternatives and Boras and Damon look like the bad guys, not Cashman.

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