Ivan Nova was a 2004 international signee from the Dominican Republic. The big right hander has had a strange pro career where his abilities have remarkably never really matched up with results. Before we go too much further, Nova was the only name on our list that Greg and I both winced at placing this high- I think it’s more than fair to say if we were to do this again, Nova would most likely be lower. Here’s why.
Ivan Nova got off to a noticeable start in the GCL as a 19 year old in 2006, posting results that were in keeping with his impressive Dominican summer league results. Nova was 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in 43 innings as a starter. He had 37 strikeouts compared to just 7 walks. He earned plaudits for his poise and relaxed demeanor (more on that later) and along with his size plus size (6’4”, 210 lbs) and good velocity (touching 95) Nova was hailed a major sleeper prospect for the Yankees. Here’s how his advanced line from Fangraphs looked in 2006:
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
FIP
2006
Yankees (R)
7.53
1.47
5.14
1.05
.229
1.00
.267
84.6 %
3.73
Right off the bat, you’ll notice the very low BABIP and high LOB% which are good indicators of a flukey performance. Altogether though, 2006 was a good season for the young Nova and the Yankees had to be pleased with what they saw.
2007 and 2008 were a little less kind. 2007 saw Nova start the season with arm troubles and the wheels never really got back on the train. It was chalked up as a growing season, a learning experience for Nova. Scouts and coaches continued to heap praise on him because of his outstanding stuff and saw his developing body as a good sign. No one seemed too concerned about the precipitous drop in the K/9 rate and prognosticators were still interested in the talent behind the numbers. 2008 caused a little more stir. People inside and outside of the organization started to wonder why Nova, who truly does have impressive talent, could not turn that into tangible success. The first signs that the relaxed demeanor might be part of the problem were also brought up, that his lack of aggressiveness in finishing off hitters was weakening his season. The lack of concentration from start to start limited his consistency.
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
FIP
2007
Yankees (A)
4.89
2.81
1.74
0.72
.302
1.53
.333
64.0 %
4.28
2008
Yankees (A+)
6.60
2.78
2.37
0.36
.286
1.44
.343
66.2 %
3.37
Entering 2009 Nova was left off the 40 man roster was claimed by the Padres where he was auditioned for a bullpen role. It didn’t work out for him as voices inside the Padre organization echoed the same concerns that had been said before about Nova.
2009 was a tale of two levels for Nova. After he was released from the Padres the Yankees sent him to extended spring training to get him stretched out for starting and sent him to AA where he pitched exceedingly well. He went 5-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 47 Ks in 72 IP before being called up to AAA. Scranton was a different experience for Nova, one that begot a 5.10 ERA and 43 Ks and 67 IP. But were these two levels really night and day? Look at the advanced numbers from Frangraphs for both levels in 2009:
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
FIP
2009
Yankees (AA)
5.85
3.86
1.52
0.37
.242
1.33
.283
75.7 %
3.81
2009
Yankees (AAA)
5.78
3.76
1.54
0.54
.276
1.49
.318
65.7 %
4.08
The results are clearly different, but is that the difference you expect between a 2.36 ERA and a 5.10? I would surmise not- this might say something about the ultimate utility of ERA but I’ll save that argument for Greg to make more succinctly another day. Two noticeable features of these numbers would be the BABIP and the LOB% which again, could be an indication that Nova was getting a bit lucky in his Trenton starts.
Throughout his career so far, despite the plus stuff, Nova has not really had any great results. He has only a 5.82 K/9 rate for his career, and his walk numbers have been trending slightly upward since his GCL debut. On the positive side, Nova does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (51% GB%) which in turn leads to his ability to limit the HR (0.51 HR/9).
Scouting Report:
Nova has a report that would make you think he would be an upper echelon type prospect. But as we’ve seen, he’s clearly not. His fastball sits 91-94 and is a plus offering due to his ability to maintain velocity throughout his starts. He also has a sinking fastball he’ll throw as well that had good movement down in the zone that he can command well and get on top of due to his size. His changeup and curveball are also plus offerings, his changeup probably more so than the curve. He has good fade and maintains solid arm action on the change up, but the curveball can be inconsistent and flattens out from time to time.
Nova doesn’t always use his stuff effectively however as mentioned earlier. He doesn’t pitch aggressively and fails to put away hitters partly because he avoids pitching inside. He’ll start 2010 in AAA’s rotation and should see some time in the Bronx this year. It remains to be seen if he’ll be used as a reliever where his pitches may play up, or as a starter at the next level.
Ultimately I think Nova’s ceiling is somewhere in the backend of the rotation. The low strikeout totals would prohibit him from any sort of higher projection and I would think they might limit his use as a bullpen arm as well. On a team like the Yankees, I’m not sure what purpose Nova could fill, but I wouldn’t be surprised to start finding out sometime in 2010.
Finally a sane evaluation of Nova. Boy is this guy being hyped! I can understand that his stuff is pretty good, but there is nothing in his years of minor league experience to indicate that he is a real prospect. The only thing that you can say is that he had a good ERA in AA for part of last year, although, as pointed out, his BB rate is going up in an alarming fashion and his K rate has never been anything to write home about.
Most damning of all is that the mighty San Diego Padres could have had him for nothing and they sent him back. If he was a real prospect they would have found a way to keep him around.
+0
... written by Sean P,
February 03, 2010
Its frustrating with guys like Nova who seem to have everything they need to do well and then just.....don't. Nova I guess still can put it all together but results speak for themselves. That's what we'll need to see before we can get really excited about him.
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Most damning of all is that the mighty San Diego Padres could have had him for nothing and they sent him back. If he was a real prospect they would have found a way to keep him around.